Surging residential real estate prices and waiting national buyers possibly point to the fragile beginning of a land boom in South Mississippi, according to local housing market figures and people working with real estate.

"I've had lots of calls from lots of investors all over the country," said John Harris, a Hancock County real estate agent with Latter & Blum Realtors. "They're all on a list waiting for zoning to allow condos. It's a seller's market."

September figures released by the Mississippi Gulf Coast Multiple Listing Service show a spike in home prices but a drop-off in houses sold. The average home sold for almost $184,000 compared to almost $136,000 for the same month last year.

George Carbo, urban development director for Gulfport, said he has heard talk that many individuals and development companies are looking to buy investment properties, but so far, "it appears to just be talk," because massive land purchases in Gulfport haven't begun.

"I know several people are looking for investment property," Carbo said. "But I think a lot of people are waiting for insurance settlements, or new property surveys."

The buying freeze that Carbo sees is reflected in the listing service figures. Only 115 homes were sold this September compared with more than 400 that were sold in September 2004.

Since total sales for the year up to September are comparable to those sold in 2004, though, it is still too soon to tell whether that drop-off in sales is the temporary result of so many people who were unable to do business in the weeks immediately after the storm.

Workers at the Harrison County Chancery Clerk's Office in Biloxi have also seen the same thing that September's home sales numbers show. They said they haven't seen any major spike in land transactions.

Harrison County Chancery Clerk John McAdams said he's also heard rumors that people are looking to buy land, especially on the beach, but that so far, they remain rumors.

"Right now, we're only doing about half the (deed) recording based on last year," he said. "I would expect that after the first of the year, when people get debris cleaned out and insurance settlements, things will get back to blowing and going."

McAdams said he doesn't know how easy it would be for developers to buy up residential properties to build condos or other large developments, unless major zoning changes occur.

"If you were going to buy a bunch of property that's residential, you'd have to go in and get all the owners to agree, and you know how hard that is. If you wanted to buy things on, for instance, Hewes Avenue, you'd have to get every property owner on board. I don't know how logistically that would work unless it was zoned commercial already."

"From what I hear, they are being closed with cash transactions," Carbo said. "I've heard some people are paying a premium, in cash, because of the shortage of homes ready to be moved into. I know of one, in particular, where the buyer paid over $300,000 in cash for a 2,600-square-foot house. We're hearing that the values of habitable houses are up 20 percent since Katrina. Most of what I have right now is just anecdotal, but I know people are trying to find places to live, and some of them have the cash to make the purchases."

"I'm living with a friend in the Enclave (subdivision in Biloxi)," McAdams said. "They're asking $75,000 to $100,000 more for them; and they're selling them. These are in the 2,000-square foot range and a little up, and we're talking $340,000 and $350,000. Hello!"

Walter Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, was cautious about interpreting numbers this early after Katrina's devastation. He said that many factors will play a role in how the Coast market will develop. Among those that will have the largest impacts are the national economy, interest rates, and the costs and requirements of flood insurance.

Molony also noted spiking home sales in communities surrounding the disaster area. He said that Baton Rouge was seeing housing price increases of 150 percent while sales were increasing in Mobile and Jackson.

Whether people leaving the Coast will move away permanently is another question. Molony said much of that depends on how quickly the area's infrastructure and jobs come back up.

But attracting those who moved away may not be necessary to bring tax rolls up to pre-storm levels. Before Katrina, many northerners passed over South Mississippi to live in places like Florida or Arizona.

"These places have gotten very expensive, so they are looking at the Gulf Coast and the Mid-Atlantic states," he said. "You weren't on the national radar screen, but you are now."

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